As expected, bullish USDA data

As expected, bullish USDA data

By: Mike McGinnis 08/09/2012 @ 1:58pm

DES MOINES, Iowa ( U.S. corn and soybean yields continue to get smaller, USDA says Friday. In its August Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports, the USDA data is seen as bullish for the farm markets.

For corn, the USDA estimates the 2012 production at 10.779 billion bushels, vs. its July estimate of 12.970 billion bushels and the average analysts estimate of 10.971 billion bushels. U.S. corn yield has been lowered from 146 bu./acre to 123 bu./acre, compared to the average analysts estimate of 126.2 bu./acre. This is the lowest since 1995, if realized.

The USDA estimates the 2012 U.S. soybean production at 2.692 billion bushels vs. the July estimate of 3.050 billion and the average analysts estimate of 2.786 billion. The U.S. soybean yield estimate is (36.1 bu./acre vs. USDA's July estimate of 40.5 bu./acre and the average trade estimate of  37.2 bu./acre. If realized, Friday's yield estimate would be the lowest since 2003.

On Friday, the government pegged the U.S. 2012 All Wheat production at 2.26 billion bushels vs. the average analysts estimate of 2.220 billion bushels and the USDA's previous estimate of 2.224 billion bushels.

Discuss the USDA Reports in Marketing Talk.


Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice president, says the Report. on its face, is bullish.

"But, given recent trade talk of disaster out there, these estimates are probably pretty much in the market.  That said, I see nothing here to send markets down except for liquidation trading.  We should be higher. But,  we kind of already have traded these types of numbers.  No reason to sell, but I bought these ideas already," Scoville says.