USDA data seen bearish

USDA data seen bearish

By: Mike McGinnis 03/10/2011 @ 7:53am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released bearish numbers Thursday for corn, soybean, and wheat markets, CME Group grain floor traders say.

Based on the numbers, corn is called 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 7-10 cents lower, and wheat 10-15 cents lower.

"No shockers in this report. The market will trade this report for about five minutes and then the focus is back on the acreage, which we don't know yet," Scott Shellady, XFA trader says.

Tim Hannagan, PFGBest.com senior grain analyst, says this report is a  'yawner'. "I'm surprised they left corn and beans alone. Of course, that’s math impossible, as we had huge import variances. But, the USDA does not want to rock the boat with that big acreage report on March 31. So, the report is neutral to corn and beans and bearish wheat on the surface. Grains look to the outside for direction."

In its March Supply/Demand Report, the USDA estimates the U.S. 2010-11 soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, compared to its February estimate of 140 million and the average trade expectation of 141 million bushels.

For corn, the U.S. 2010-11 carryout is estimated at 675 million bushels, vs. the government's February estimate of 675 million bushels and the trade's average estimate of 667 million.

USDA estimates the U.S. 2010-11 wheat ending stocks at 843 million bushels, vs. the average trade expectation of 809 million bushels and the USDA's last estimate of 818 million.

WORLD CARRYOVER

The USDA estimates the 2010-11 world wheat carryover at 181.9 million metric tons, vs. a February estimate of 177.8. For 2010-11 corn, the world carryover is set at 123.1 million metric tons vs. a February estimate of 122.5. USDA estimates the 2010-11 world soybean carryover at 58.3 million metric tons, vs. 58.2 last month.

WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION

USDA placed Brazil's 2010-11 soybean production at (70.0 million metric tons vs. a February estimate of 68.5 million metric tons. Argentina's soybean production is estimated at 49.5 million metric tons, compared to the government's February estimate of 49.5 million metric tons. Argentina's corn production is estimated at 22.0 million metric tons, while the government placed it at 22.0 million metric tons in February.

Usda bearish commodity report-again!

don hagerott 03/10/2011 @ 11:53am
"a world awash in wheat" last years statements- only to find out russia shut off exports, Canada was unable to plant any HRS wheat acres and now a premature report predicting more carryover than earlier. I don't know anything about politics but the grain mkt girations don't seem driven by supply and demand. Speculators and politicians have the greater influence. I think the usda or whoever in gov't wants/ needs to keep the grain mkts (food) priced reasonably low , what ever price that is ,so foreign countries, particularly China can buy cheap food and contine to buy our t-bills, which are supported by the printing press and not a sound economy. Also the fear of consumers blaming politicians for higher food prices-anything to protect votes. When sacrifice is required agriculture will be asked to make it. I may sound A BIT skeptical but I think justifiably so.